SHOWDOWN: The eight key Lincolnshire election races you need to watch

The final Lincolnshire County Council election could end up being the most interesting in its history.

The county has been run by Conservatives for most of the last 50 years – however a fierce competition is looming just as it’s about to be abolished in a council shake-up.

The seats were last contested in 2021, when Prime Minister Boris Johnson was riding high in the polls after reopening the country from lockdown.

Four years later, the Conservatives have been unceremoniously ejected from government, and Labour have had a difficult first year in office.

Meanwhile, Reform UK have made Lincolnshire a key target, with leader Nigel Farage even speaking about the possibility of taking over the county council.

The Conservatives currently have a huge majority of 53 out of the 70 seats.

The key question is, can they hang on at least 35 of them to keep control, or if not will it be Reform or some other coalition of parties which takes over?

A full list of candidates standing is available online, and the Local Democracy Reporting Service will publish results through election night.

Here are eight of the key races to look for after polls close to see which way the political winds are blowing.

The East Coast showdown

If Nigel Farage’s party can triumph anywhere in Lincolnshire, it’s likely along the East Coast. Skegness already has a Reform MP and several Reform town councillors – can they make it a hat-trick?

The Conservative-held Skegness North will be a prime target. Tory Carl Macey will be facing Skegness Mayor Adrian Findley, whose defection to Reform was announced during the party’s Lincolnshire rally last month.

Danny Brookes, who also switched, will be standing in Ingoldmells Rural against senior council figure Colin Davies. Brookes previously represented Skegness Urban District Society.

The knife-edge election

As far as majorities go, it’s hard to have a slimmer majority than two votes. That’s what Labour councillor and former MP Karen Lee achieved when she beat the Conservative candidate in 2021 in the Lincoln ward of Ermine & Cathedral.

She’s defending the seat four years on – but the entrance of Reform could turn it into a three-way race. The ward contains both the prosperous area around the Cathedral and some working-class areas ranked as the most deprived in the county.

The new Reform seats

Despite never winning an election in Lincolnshire, Reform already has three seats on the county council. Councillors Rob Gibson, Lesley Jane King and Manzur Hasan were all elected as South Holland Independents, but jumped ship earlier this year.

Spalding has a strong independent tradition, although there aren’t any on the ballot this year since the defection. The question will be whether voters punish the candidates for the change of party or embrace Reform.

All eyes on the leader

There’s always the potential for major figures to lose their seats in big elections – just look at last year’s General Elections as big-name politicians were rejected by the electorate. Martin Hill has been a councillor in Folkingham Rural for 1993 and leader of the council for 20 of those years.

While he enjoyed nearly 60 per cent of the vote in 2021, Labour candidate Alexander Kirk is attempting to make a high-profile run against him this year, while Reform’s Mike Rudkin will try to squeeze him from the right.

The invincible majority?

Conservatives will be desperate to hang onto their safe seats, and nowhere is safer (in theory) than Heckington. An astounding 81.5 per cent of the vote in the Sleaford seat went blue in 2021.

However, a two-person race has turned into a five-person race this year. The Conservatives will be watching how many votes they can reliably hold onto, and hoping that it doesn’t become competitive.

The seat has also been at the heart of solar farm controversy, with several major ones approved or in the works in the area. Exactly how this will translate into votes is unclear at this stage.

The opposition strongholds

While much of Lincolnshire’s political map is currently blue, there are splashes of other colours.

The Liberal Democrats made a strong showing in West Lindsey in 2021, taking seats in Gainsborough and Market Rasen, and became the progressive opposition to Conservatives in rural areas. Lesley Rollings came within 70 votes of unseating the Conservatives in Scotter Rural, and will be giving it another shot this year.

Meanwhile, there’s a pocket of Labour red around Lincoln. It will be tough to say whether the Conservatives, Reform or Liberal Democrats pose a bigger threat to incumbent Neil Murray in wards like Carholme.

The warning sign

If this election does end up coming down to Reform versus Conservatives, there have been indications of how that could play out. In a district council by-election for Washingborough last month, the Conservatives only managed to hang on by 22 votes.

This was a new candidate replacing a long-time councillor, and turnout is often erratic for by-elections. However, it’s likely to be concerning for Conservatives if they can’t hang onto comfortable, suburban areas and villages like this.

The Independents’ best shot?

In an age when voters seem disillusioned with all political parties, it’s possible that independents could make a breakthrough.

Marianne Overton is the only Lincolnshire Independent incumbent, running again for the rural seat of Bassingham & Welbourn, alongside her bid to be Greater Lincolnshire Mayor.

Voters will be able to cast their ballots for Lincolnshire Independents in nine races, with a variety of other non-aligned candidates also standing.