UK Nightlife in Crisis: half of UK pubs and clubs predicted be extinct by 2030, new study reveals

• UK nightlife faces a critical decline, new study reveals.
• Projections indicate nearly half of UK pubs and clubs could close by 2030.
• The study also pinpoints UK areas set to be hardest hit by this venue closure trend.

The UK nightlife scene is at a critical point in time, as more venues are finding it difficult to cover costs and face financial burdens and worse, the possibility of closing up altogether.

But the future could be even bleak, according to projections made by Capital on Tap, as they found the worst is yet to come - and by 2030, half of bars, pubs and nightclubs across the United Kingdom will be forced to close permanently.

While changing social behaviours are still seen as a contributing factor after the COVID-19 pandemic, a cost of living crisis and a generation of Brits eschewing boozy nights out for more sober, social occasions is also a driving force behind the decline in the UK’s nightlife.

Which spells problems for the 3.5 million employed in the hospitality sector, with the third largest employment sector in the United Kingdom having to find new jobs as more and more establishments shut down.

But is there a particular area in the United Kingdom that’s set to be the most affected by the projection? Sadly, according to Capital on Tap’s study, the Midlands and Yorkshire could be the hardest hit if their projections are correct.

The science part

Capital on Tap analysed data from the country's most populated cities. They looked at factors like the number of pubs and clubs per 100,000 people, and the average customer ratings of these venues, to determine the best nightlife spots.

To identify areas experiencing the biggest decline, they tracked the actual percentage of venue closures between 2022 and 2025, alongside total pub and club numbers and average ratings.

To gauge demand, they combined venue closure rates with online search volumes for nightlife. Finally, to predict changes between 2025 and 2030, they created a formula based on the venue decline/increase trends of the past three years for each city.

Where is predicted to be the most affected in the UK by 2030?

According to Capital on Tap's projections, Leicester is poised to experience the most dramatic shift in its social scene, with a staggering 65.85% decline in pubs and clubs by 2030. This means the city, currently boasting a substantial 4,073 venues, is expected to see that number dwindle to a mere 1,391.

This represents a loss of over 2,600 locations where people gather, socialize, and enjoy their evenings.

Following closely behind is Leeds, predicted to lose 65.14% of its venues, equating to over 4,000 closures. The city, which currently enjoys a vibrant nightlife with 6,017 pubs and clubs, is projected to see that figure drop to just 2,098.

Brighton, famed for its bohemian atmosphere and lively nightlife, is also facing a significant decline, with a projected loss of 64.06% of its venues. This would see the city's current 1,959 venues reduced to only 704. Similarly, Bristol, another city known for its vibrant music scene and social spaces, is expected to lose 61.33% of its pubs and clubs, bringing its current 3,241 venues down to 1,253.

Even the capital, London, is not immune to this trend, facing a projected decline of 57.23%. This would translate to a loss of thousands of venues, bringing the city's current 8,457 pubs and clubs down to 3,617.

The top 10 affected areas according to projections

1. Leicester: Projected loss of 65.85%, 4,073 to 1,391 venues.
2. Leeds: Projected loss of 65.14%, 6,017 to 2,098 venues.
3. Brighton: Projected loss of 64.06%, 1,959 to 704 venues.
4. Bristol: Projected loss of 61.33%, 3,241 to 1,253 venues.
5. London: Projected loss of 57.23%, 8,457 to 3,617 venues.
6. Northampton: Projected loss of 55.69%, 2,850 to 1,263 venues.
7. Liverpool: Projected loss of 53.02%, 5,395 to 2,534 venues.
8. Sheffield: Projected loss of 52.34%, 7,540 to 3,593 venues.
9. Derby: Projected loss of 51.95%, 5,002 to 2,403 venues.
10. Portsmouth: Projected loss of 51.15%, 1,969 to 962 venues.

Have you noticed more venues and bars closing in your area and are you concerned there might be even less of a nightlife in the coming years? Let us know your thoughts on these projections by commenting below.